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Why Grace Poe Is Now No. 1 In SWS Surveys

Duterte is in second spot
by Andrei Medina | Mar 28, 2016
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Senator Grace Poe has recently snagged the decisive top position in a follow-up mobile survey for presidential candidates. The survey, conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS), was done two days after the second PiliPinas Debates.

In the March 22 survey, Poe garnered a commanding 35 percent, or 806 of 1,200 respondents (67 percent) who participated.

Although she actually had a four-percent drop in approval ratings compared to the initial SWS mobile survey conducted on March 21, the new numbers actually show a solid upward trend in favor of the neophyte senator.

She also topped the March 18 pre-debate SWS mobile survey, garnering a 33-percent approval rating.

More importantly, Poe's approval ratings clearly indicate she has consistently topped former survey frontrunner Vice President Jejomar Binay in all four SWS surveys this March.

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte for his part also consistently came in at second in the same series of SWS surveys.

But Poe appears to be the big winner. She was just barely ahead of Binay four SWS surveys ago. The survey conducted from March 4 to 7 had Poe and the vice president at 27 and 24 percent respectively. At that time, Poe got a three-point increase, while Binay suffered a five-point drop.

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After-effects of the second debate

So how did Poe suddenly get a surge in approval ratings in the span of three consecutive surveys?

Based on comparisons of the March 18 pre-debate and March 22 post-debate SWS mobile surveys, Poe dominated after impressing respondents during the second debate.

The data further shows she retained the 25 percent from the 33 percent who voted for her in the March 18 survey four days after.

Potshots against Poe during the second debate also seemed to have backfired terribly as she converted a two-percent following each from Binay, Duterte, and Mar Roxas II's former voters.

She also gained one percent from former Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago's voters and another three percent from those who did not respond to the March 18 mobile survey.

Duterte, meanwhile, retained 19 percent from the 26 percent who voted for him in the March 18 survey.

He also converted two percent each from Poe and Binay voters, one percent from Roxas and 0.3 percent from Santiago while also getting three percent from dormant respondents.

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A closer look would show that the Davao mayor has a similar gain and retention rate with Poe but the latter's sheer lead in voter base during the March 18 survey proved to be the major factor for her to still come out on top.

Votes by area

Lastly, another key factor in Poe's survey ranking would be how respondents voted in terms of geographical area.

Poe led in Metro Manila with 31 percent, followed by Duterte (27%), Binay (20%), Roxas (16%), and Santiago (5%).

She also pulled away in Balance Luzon with 43 percent followed by Binay (24%), Duterte (16%), Roxas (15%), and Santiago (1%).

Interestingly, Poe (35%) managed to beat Roxas (30%) in his own territory in the Visayas. Duterte (21%), Binay (10%), and Santiago (2%) were nowhere close.

However, Duterte (49%) dominated his Mindanao bailiwick and defeated Poe (25%) decisively in a landslide. Binay and Roxas both got 12 percent while Santiago got two percent.

The SWS mobile survey was conducted in partnership with second PiliPinas Debates host TV5. The latest survey has sampling error margins of ±3 percent for national percentages, and ±7 percent in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.

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